Michael Davis
The rule of thumb is a method that purportedly helps one determine if they are in the radiation zone of a nuclear explosion. The method involves holding one's thumb over the mushroom cloud of the explosion and evacuating if the cloud appears bigger than the thumb. This method has been referenced in popular culture, including in the Fallout video game series, where a character known as Vault Boy appears to be performing the rule of thumb. However, the effectiveness of this method in accurately determining radiation zones has been disputed, with some sources claiming that it is not scientifically accurate and may provide a false sense of security.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Source of the thumb check trick | A Reddit thread |
| Origin of the thumb check trick | The Vault Boy from the Fallout series |
| Purpose of the thumb check trick | To determine whether you are in the radiation zone after a nuclear explosion |
| Steps to perform the thumb check trick | Stick your arm out, hold your thumb over the mushroom cloud, and if the cloud is bigger than your thumb, you are in the radiation zone and should evacuate |
| Scientific accuracy | Not scientifically accurate |
| Practicality | Does not help because the danger distance is about three times smaller than the 'thumb distance' |
| Expert opinion | Neither Buddemeier nor McBurney, experts in the field of radiation, have heard about the 'rule of thumb' |
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What You'll Learn
- The 'rule of thumb' is not scientifically accurate
- The thumb test is rumoured to have originated from the Vault Boy in the Fallout series
- The mushroom cloud continues to grow after the explosion
- The thumb test is a false sense of security
- The thumb test is not mentioned in official US government sources
The 'rule of thumb' is not scientifically accurate
The "rule of thumb" for checking if you are in the radiation zone of a nuclear explosion by holding your thumb against the mushroom cloud is not scientifically accurate. This is because the size of a nuclear explosion cannot be accurately estimated by comparing it to the size of a thumb. The mushroom cloud continues to spread and grow laterally for an extended period, typically attaining its maximum height after about 10 minutes. Thus, the size of the explosion is not limited to what is visible to the naked eye.
Furthermore, the thumb rule does not account for the intensity of different bombs, which can vary significantly. For example, the fireball created by the Fat Man bomb dropped on Nagasaki had a radius of 0.1 kilometers, while the first hydrogen bomb tested by the US, Castle Bravo, produced a fireball with a radius of 1.42 kilometers. Therefore, the thumb rule cannot provide an accurate indication of the blast radius or radiation zone.
Additionally, the thumb rule does not consider the direction and speed of the wind, which are crucial factors in determining the spread of radioactive fallout. The fallout cloud can travel up to five miles into the air and then drift about 10-20 miles in the downwind direction. As winds can be highly unpredictable, taking shelter is often recommended if one suspects they may be in an area where fallout may be present or approaching.
Moreover, the thumb rule does not account for the fact that the initial fireball of a nuclear explosion can cause damage far beyond what is visible. For example, a 1-megaton explosion can cause third-degree burns (which destroy skin tissue) at distances up to 5 miles. Thus, relying on the thumb rule may give a false sense of security, as one could still be at risk of serious injury or fatality even if the cloud appears smaller than their thumb.
In conclusion, while the "rule of thumb" for checking radiation zones may have been a piece of advice circulated during the Cold War era, it is not based on scientific accuracy. It is important to prioritize seeking proper cover and following official safety protocols in the event of a nuclear explosion, rather than relying on potentially misleading or outdated advice.
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The thumb test is rumoured to have originated from the Vault Boy in the Fallout series
The "mushroom cloud thumb check trick" is a social media myth that has gained traction over the years. It is said that if you hold your thumb against a mushroom cloud, and your thumb is bigger than the cloud, you can start running. If it's smaller, you're safe. This myth has been debunked by many, including the executive producer of Fallout 1 & 2, Brian Fargo, and the artist behind the Vault Boy pose, Tramell Isaac.
The Reddit thread that started the rumour suggested that the thumb test was a piece of "'duck and cover' advice from the 1950s. While it is plausible that such advice existed during that time, the Vault Boy character was not designed with this idea in mind. The rumour gained popularity, circulating on social media and clickbait sites, but it has been repeatedly debunked by Fargo and other sources.
It's important to note that the mushroom cloud continues to grow laterally even after stabilization, and the size of the cloud is inconsistent with the potential radioactive area. The amount of radioactive contamination depends on various factors such as energy yield, fission and fusion contributions, burst height, weather conditions, and terrain. Additionally, if you can see the mushroom cloud, fallout may not be your biggest risk, as modern hydrogen bombs have less fallout, and the initial blast and heat are more immediate concerns.
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The mushroom cloud continues to grow after the explosion
The "rule of thumb" for measuring the size of a mushroom cloud from a nuclear explosion is a concept that has gained popularity on social media and through video games like Fallout. The idea is that if you see a mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb, you stick your arm out and hold your thumb over the cloud. If the cloud is bigger than your thumb, you are in the radiation zone and should evacuate.
However, this "rule of thumb" is not an accurate indicator of whether you are in the radiation zone or not. The mushroom cloud from a nuclear explosion can continue to grow and spread for tens of minutes after the initial blast. It typically reaches its maximum height within about 10 minutes and is then considered "stabilized." But it continues to expand laterally, forming the characteristic mushroom shape. The cloud may remain visible for about an hour, gradually dispersing over time.
Comparing the size of the cloud to your thumb during this dynamic process is not a reliable method for assessing radiation risk. The size of the cloud in relation to your thumb can vary depending on factors such as your distance from the explosion, the intensity of the blast, and the direction and speed of the wind carrying the radioactive particles.
A more critical factor to consider is the initial fireball created by the explosion. Within a fraction of a second, the fireball from a 1-megaton weapon can reach a width of 5,700 feet, which is slightly more than a mile. Simple geometry suggests that your thumb would completely cover this fireball from a distance of around 30 miles. This distance is already well outside the immediate blast radius, where the danger of radiation exposure is significantly reduced.
Therefore, while the mushroom cloud continues to grow and evolve after a nuclear explosion, relying on the "rule of thumb" method can provide a false sense of security. It is important to prioritize seeking appropriate shelter and following official guidelines for nuclear safety rather than relying on this simplistic and potentially misleading thumb measurement.
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The thumb test is a false sense of security
The "rule of thumb" test, which suggests that you can determine whether you are in the radiation zone of a nuclear explosion by comparing the size of the mushroom cloud to your thumb, is a false sense of security. This idea appears to have originated from a Reddit thread discussing the video game "Fallout", in which the character Vault Boy is seen posing with his thumb up and a winking and smiling expression. While it may be plausible as a piece of "duck and cover" advice from the 1950s, it is not scientifically accurate.
The size of the mushroom cloud is not a reliable indicator of whether you are in the radiation zone. The cloud can continue to grow and spread for an extended period, typically attaining its maximum height after about 10 minutes and then growing laterally to form the characteristic mushroom shape. A more realistic comparison might be the initial fireball, which for a 1-megaton weapon can reach a maximum value of about 5,700 feet in 10 seconds. Simple geometry suggests that your thumb would completely cover this from a distance of around 30 miles, indicating that you could be much closer than the "rule of thumb" suggests and still survive the immediate effects of a nuclear explosion.
Additionally, the danger distance for blast effects is about three times smaller than the "thumb distance". This means that you could see the fireball much larger than your thumb and still be at a safe distance. The key factor to consider in the event of a nuclear explosion is wind direction, as the fallout cloud can travel up to five miles into the air and then be carried in the downwind direction for 10-20 miles. If you are downwind, sheltering in place for 1-2 weeks is recommended, as this is how long it typically takes for the worst of the fallout to decay to safer levels.
Furthermore, by the time you see the mushroom cloud, it may already be too late to evacuate. The flash and shockwave of the explosion occur before the formation of the cloud, and the radiation and blast radius can extend far beyond what the "rule of thumb" test suggests. In the case of a 1-megaton explosion, third-degree burns can occur up to 5 miles away, while the light damage radius of a W-80 (current US arsenal) extends to almost 11 km. Thus, relying on the thumb test may give a false sense of security, leading people to underestimate the risks and delay taking necessary protective actions.
While the thumb test may have originated as a well-intentioned piece of advice, it is important to recognize its limitations and not rely on it as a sole indicator of safety in the event of a nuclear explosion. The best course of action is to seek cover and follow official guidance and recommendations from experts in radiation control and disaster management.
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The thumb test is not mentioned in official US government sources
The "rule of thumb" for determining whether you are in the radiation zone of a nuclear explosion is not mentioned in official US government sources. The test involves sticking your arm out and holding your thumb over the cloud of a mushroom cloud. If the cloud is bigger than your thumb, you are supposedly in the radiation zone and should evacuate. This idea has been propagated through image macros and "fun facts" on social media, but there is no evidence that it is a legitimate survival tip.
The concept of using your thumb to measure the size of a nuclear cloud seems to have originated from a Reddit thread about the video game "Fallout." In the game, a character named Vault Boy is rumored to be comparing his thumb to a mushroom cloud, which led to the spread of the idea on the Internet. However, this interpretation of Vault Boy's actions has been debunked by some Reddit users, who claim that the rumor started on the same thread where it was first mentioned.
While the "rule of thumb" test may not be scientifically accurate, it is important to note that the size of a nuclear explosion can vary depending on the bomb's intensity. Additionally, the mushroom cloud continues to grow and spread laterally even after it has stabilized, reaching its maximum height in about 10 minutes. Therefore, using a thumb as a reference point may not be a reliable indicator of the explosion's size or the extent of radiation danger.
Furthermore, the "rule of thumb" test does not consider the unpredictable nature of wind, which plays a crucial role in determining the direction and reach of the fallout cloud. Experts advise that taking shelter is a more effective strategy when there is a potential risk of exposure to fallout. Overall, while the thumb test has gained traction on social media, it lacks scientific backing and is not mentioned in official US government sources as a recommended procedure during a nuclear explosion.
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Frequently asked questions
No, it is not scientifically accurate. If you can see a mushroom cloud, you are likely already in the radiation zone.
The earliest mention of the thumb check trick was on a Reddit thread in 2013. It was later debunked in 2016.
People want to feel proactive in saving themselves in a disaster, even if it doesn't work. The thumb check trick is similar to pressing the emergency ringing button in a broken elevator.
The danger distance is about three times smaller than the "thumb distance". A 1-megaton explosion can cause third-degree burns (which destroy skin tissue) at distances up to 5 miles.
Seek cover immediately. If you are downwind, find shelter and stay there for 1-2 weeks.
